Saturday, February 11, 2012

MEASURING EXPECTED RETURNS

It is actually challenging to measure the expected cash flows of a foreign investment. Assume, for purposes of discussion, that Daimler’s U.S. manufacturing operation is taking into consideration getting 100 percent ownership of a manufacturing facility in Russia. The U.S. parent will finance one-half of the investment in the kind of money and equipment; the balance are going to be financed by nearby bank borrowing at market place rates. The Russian facility will import one-half of its raw materials and components from the U.S. parent and export one-half of its output to Hungary. To repatriate funds towards the parent company, the Russian facility will spend the U.S. parent a licensing fee, royalties for use of parent enterprise patents, and technical service charges for management solutions rendered. Earnings with the Russian facility will be remitted for the parent as dividends.
Procedures for estimating projected cash flows related to the Russian facility are related to those employed for a domestic company. Expected receipts are depending on sales projections and anticipated collection encounter. Operating expenditures (converted to their money equivalents) and nearby taxes are similarly forecast. Further complexities need to be regarded as, nonetheless. They consist of:
MEASURING EXPECTED RETURNS
  1. Project versus parent cash flows
  2. Parent cash flows tied to financing
  3. Subsidized financing
  4. Political threat

This approach ought to also take into consideration the impact of changing prices and fluctuating currency values on expected foreign currency returns. If nearby currency money flows were fixed (e.g., if the Russian venture was within the kind of a bond investment), it would be straightforward to measure exchange rate effects. Here, depreciation from the Russian ruble relative towards the U.S. dollar reduces the dollar equivalent of future interest earnings.
When an ongoing manufacturing enterprise generates foreign currency revenue, the analysis is much more complicated. Exchange rate modifications influence net operating money flows. Accordingly, accounting measurements of exchange rate effects for every single type of activity (for example domestic vs. export sales, domestic vs. imported costs, and their cumulative effects on projected money flows) turn out to be essential.

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